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Focus is Key to Mastering the Art of Goaltending

The greatest of goaltenders are masters of their own mind, controlling their emotions, their highs and lows, to remain focused and intent on the task at hand. This kid isn't quite there. Somebody call 911 indeed.

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The Keys to the Sabres Transition Plans

February 28th was supposed to mark the dawn of a new era in Buffalo Sabres hockey. A change in how the GM's office operates, an altered view point from Darcy Regier's desk, but now that day came and went. Melodrama aside, what we saw from Darcy Regier and the Sabres' front office yesterday, and the days before it, was a fundamental shift in philosophy in the organization's standard operating procedures. It started with the acquisition of Brad Boyes; the penultimate goal a Stanley Cup. The Newest Buffalo Sabre: Brad Boyes You heard it in his comments leading up to the deadline; you heard it echoed in the Buffalo News and blogs; the Sabres were buying, the shackles off, the checkbook only needing a signature. So what are the next steps towards building that Stanley Cup Champion the city of Buffalo was promised? Ingenuity, objectivity, and patience. Let's start with ingenuity. GM Darcy Regier has shown his prowess before in finding the right fit for his roster (under far different constraints than now). As Bucky Gleason noted, taking on a contract like Brad Boyes would never have happened BP (Before Pegula); take for example the trade that brought Daniel Briere to the Sabres. Regier shifted a heavy contract in Chris Gratton to the desert for the undersized but shifty Briere; shipping out salary while bringing in talent. He's now in a situation where he's able to, if required, to take on salary without giving up his own assets. In that regards I believe we may see the Sabres active in shopping for restricted free agents on and around the draft. There are going to be a number of kids available, for the right price, based on other teams' salary cap issues or non-willingness to commit to a prospect. Do I think offer sheets are a possibility? No, not really. It's not his style after Kevin Lowe's potential poaching of Thomas Vanek. But I do think there will be guys like Zach Bogosian of Atlanta, Ryan Callahan in New York, Setoguchi in San Jose, Michael Frolik in Chicago, even a Zach Parise in New Jersey, all of whom could be had based on their potential raises and cap inflexibility with their current franchises. Regier has stated he wants to bring on long term assets, not rentals and 1 year veterans. A RFA deal could be route he takes towards reaching that goal. The problem of course is Darcy Regier's ability in looking at his current assets objectively and realizing that to get one must give. Many of Darcy's prior moves BP have always been hamstrung financially and he's always had an unwillingness to part with his prospects. The Sabres have always been a home grown team; that reliance on the draft and building a core through it, in theory, can be tempered by Pegula's willingness to spend. As long as Regier is capable of looking at a deal and realizing the worth in the move. In today's NHL no GM can fleece their 29 compatriots in each and every deal; you can only make your roster better one player at a time. Would Regier ever have the cojones to pull off a deal like the one between Colorado and St. Louis? Like the one between Dallas and Pittsburgh? Before Pegula no, I don't think he would, nor would he consider it. It's these kinds of adroit moves that keep franchises moving forward; deals that Regier may need to look in to. Finally, patience. Regardless of what the fans may clamor for; regardless of what the Buffalo News may suggest; there's no reason to overpay or pull the trigger on a deal that doesn't move the franchise forward. Look at the 2011 unrestricted free agency crop; who realistically fits the needs of this Sabres team? There certainly is the temptation to make that immediate splash; to put your stamp on the franchise; to let the rest of the League know that you mean business. But in no way, shape, or form does that mean overpaying in a weak free agency class. Honestly; in terms of UFA's available July 1st, who would you set your sights on? Right now CapGeek estimates $18.558 million in salary cap availability for next season. Assuming Connolly, Grier, Niedermayer and Lalime are gone, while re-signing, with modest raises, Steve Montador, Cody McCormick, the Sabres will have perhaps $16 million for the RFAs and other signings. Let's assume the Sabres re-sign Stafford ($4), Sekera ($1.5), Enroth ($1.5), Gerbe ($1.5), and Weber ($2); that takes them to $5.5 million in cap space availability. Add in Zack Kassian's entry level deal and you're looking at around $4 million in cap space. The need? Well; the roster flexibility amongst a lot of Sabre forwards is unique, allowing Lindy Ruff the ability to mix and match his lines. Jochen Hecht can play LW or C. Tyler Ennis the Same. Newly acquired Brad Boyes can play RW or C. Cody McCormick has played all over the 4th line this year. So do the Sabres need a 2nd line LW to allow Hecht to be more comfortable in a 3rd line checking role? Do they go after another C and keep Ennis on the sidewall? As for defense; assuming Montador and Sekera are re-signed, and they let Butler walk, they'll go into 2011 with 6 signed D. So looking back at that free agent crop; who is there that sticks out at you as a true fit for this roster? Brooks Laich? Ville Leino? Curtis Glencross? Jamie Langenbrunner? Joni Pitkanen? Christian Ehrhoff? Truly slim pickings in the UFA bunch. Is there a single free agent worth overpaying for? That's the call that will drive Regier through the Summer as he tries to revamp this franchise into a true contender. As for me? This is what my starting lineup would look like come October 2011. Thomas VanekDerek RoyDrew Stafford Tyler EnnisBrad BoyesZack Kassian Jochen HechtJamie LangenbrunnerJason Pominville Cody McCormickTodd MarchantPat Kaleta Tyler MyersShaone Morrisonn Kevin BieksaJordan Leopold Steve MontadorMike Weber Ryan Miller Jhonas Enroth Paul ByronAndrej Sekera Yes; I'm trading Paul Gaustad for something, anything. He may be the only guy on the roster that can win faceoffs with regularity, but that's all he can do. I would rather have Jamie Langenbrunner, with his intangibles and experience, centering the 3rd line than what Gaustad currently brings. I'm also trying to bring in a Kevin Bieksa type defenseman, seemingly not in the plans for Vancouver if not for their penchant for injury at the blueline, he could potentially be pried away. I have Kassian making the starting lineup; why? He's the bang that the little skilled forwards need. Pairing him up with the likes of an Ennis and Boyes; both highly skilled guys with a penchant for avoiding the corners; the physical Kassian is exactly the type of player that they need to play alongside. As for Todd Marchant, that's the veteran type presence that Ruff and Regier love to bring in. Is this a cup contender? No, probably not. That'll take patience and a deft hand to make that happen.

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Homes of the Comeback Kids

Yesterday's moves, between the Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers and the Penguins and Ottawa Senators, saw two former players return to where they once played. Stillman back to the Canes; Kovalev back to the Penguins (that seems like an entirely different franchise at this point though); in my line of work that's called a comeback kid. That got me thinkin'; is this a common trend? Look at Calgary's roster. Buffalo brought back Mike Grier. Carolina has a roster full of prodigal sons. So let's hit the rosters. Atlantic Division New Jersey Devils - Brian Rolston (1994-2000, 2008-2011), Jason Arnott (1997-2002, 2010-2011) Philadelphia Flyers - Brian Boucher (1999-2002, 2009-2011) Pittsburgh Penguins - Alex Kovalev (1998-2003 , 2011) New York Rangers - Sean Avery (2006-2008, 2008-2011) New York Islanders - None Central Division Detroit Red Wings - Todd Bertuzzi (2006-2007, 2009-2011), Chris Osgood (1993-2001, 2005-2011) Nashville Predators - Francis Bouillon (2002-2003, 2009-2011) Chicago Blackhawks - None Columbus Blue Jackets - None St. Louis Blues - None Northeast Division Boston Bruins - None Montreal Canadiens - Paul Mara (2009-2010, 2010-2011) Buffalo Sabres - Mike Grier (2003-2006, 2009-2011) Toronto Maple Leafs - None Ottawa Senators - None Northwest Division Vancouver Canucks - None Minnesota Wild - Andrew Brunette (2001-2004, 2008-2011) Calgary Flames - Alex Tanguay (2006-2008, 2010-2011), Olli Jokinen (2008-2010, 2010-2011) Colorado Avalanche - Adam Foote (1995-2004, 2007-2011) Edmonton Oilers - None Pacific Division San Jose Sharks - None Phoenix Coyotes - Radim Vrbata (2007-2008, 2009-2011), Derek Morris (2003-2009, 2009-2011) Los Angeles Kings - None Dallas Stars - Stephane Robidas (2002-2004, 2005-2011), Jamie Langenbrunner (1994-2002, 2010-2011) Anaheim Ducks - Teemu Selanne (1995-2001, 2005-2011), Francois Beauchemin (2006-2009, 2011) Southeast Division Tampa Bay Lightning - Pavel Kubina (1997-2006, 2010-2011) Washington Capitals - None Carolina Hurricanes - Erik Cole (2001-2008, 2008-2011), Joe Corvo (2007-2010, 2010-2011), Corey Stillman (2005-2008 , 2011) Atlanta Thrashers - None Florida Panthers - Radek Dvorak (1995-2000, 2007-2011), Darcy Hordichuk (2002 - 2004, 2011), Team with the most comeback kids? The Carolina Hurricanes. Not a surprise here. Did I miss anything? Also; if you want to count coaches; Hurricanes extend that lead.

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Mark Pysyk Is Goal Oriented

To the uninitiated, and by uninitiated I mean non-Buffalo Sabres fans, the name Mark Pysyk may not mean too much. The Sabres 2010 1st round draft pick has set his short-term goals pretty lofty; becoming really good friends with Taylor Swift. Originally pointed out (to me, at least) by ScottyMCSS of Buffalo74; Pysyk has been on a 2 week crusade to charm the pants off the country star who writes a song about every guy she ever let get to 2nd base (Isn't that a warning Mark?!). By the way; have I mentioned that this has gotten absolutely hilarious? My favorite? Or maybe... No Mark, it's not creepy, it's hilarious. You have to check out the rest of his feed. Chirping Bieber is a ballsy move, but Pysyk pulls it off. The whole hockey thing has been well to Pysyk too. Putting up 40 points (6 G + 34 A) in 63 games, good for 5th on the Oil Kings Roster, an all around strong showing from a guy known for his prowess in his own end. You really do need to follow Mark Pysyk, Captain of the WHL's Edmonton Oil Kings here.

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Lookin At Playoff Chances

Do I pretend to understand the complex algorithms and the millions of simulations that Sports Club Stats runs to come up with the percentages they do? Absolutely not. What I do know is that it's pretty damn accurate and it's a whole lot less work I need to do to determine when and how teams need to perform to reach that important point threshold. So where do the bubble teams sit? How precarious a hold do current playoff teams have? Let's check it. Check the graph from the awesome Sports Club Stats; percentage wise you have 6 teams comfortably in, 4 teams comfortably out, and 5 teams gunning for those last 2 spots. And Yes; I realize 4-10 (by points, not) are only separated by 9 points; but I don't feel like doing that much research for that many squads. To Reach 91 Point Threshold TeamGames RemainingRequired RecordPointsChances in at 91Playoff Chances Bruins2510-13-22284.6%99.6% Canadiens2410-12-22282.9%93% Capitals2510-12-32377%94.5% Rangers2412-9-32777%77.4% Hurricanes2513-9-32969%52.8% Sabres2714-10-33172.6%52.9% Panthers2717-8-23660.7%17.9% Thrashers2414-7-33155.1%11.5% Note that the chances colum refers to the chances the team makes the playoffs if they reach that threshold; which is essentially the lowest point amount that's greater than 50% for any team. You can see that Atlanta really dug themselves a hole with their recent outage; while the Sabres have put themselves into prime position; especially with the games in hand. Check how crazy this is; a regulation win tonight for Buffalo and a regulation loss for Carolina will bump the Sabres playoff chances to 57.9% and drop Carolina down to 44.3%. WHO SAYS EACH GAME DOESN'T MATTER?! Now as for the West; things are a bit more murky. Like, way more murky. Teams 3 - 13 are separated by just 10 points. To the graphics. To Reach 94 Point Threshold TeamGames RemainingRequired RecordPointsChance in at 94 PtsPlayoff Chances Coyotes2411-10-32570.5%66.8% Ducks2512-10-32781.9%73.5% Stars2512-11-22675.7%62.0% Predators2512-11-22675.9%83.1% Sharks2412-10-22478.3%68.5% Flames2313-8-22868.8%38.1% Wild2613-10-32678.9%60.1% Kings2613-10-32684.7%79.0% Blackhawks2615-9-23275.3%49.4% Blue Jackets2615-8-33371.7%10.6% Blues2716-8-33562.2%10.0% Avalanche2418-5-23879.6%0.7% So you can see; that 94 number being thrown around; yeah; that's not going to do it. Easy to tell when you look at the playoff chances for the team's with the highest number of games in hand; looking like it might be 96 or so in the West. That'll be crazy. So now that you're armed to the teeth with knowledge. Put it to the test; put your money down on some games. Go ahead; check out the NHL lines at BetUS. If I were you though; I wouldn't put anything down on the Avalanche making the playoffs. Just sayin'.

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DC Jersey Foul - Extreme!

Words cannot describe this foul. Took this picture last year at the Caps rookie camp and forgot I even had it. Good thing jersey fouls never get old!If you can't see it because my posting skills are lacking...it reads "XTREMIST". Only in DC. The Red Jnco Jean pants complete the outfit though. Nice touch.

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2011 Playoff Prognostication Part 2

I, being a wannabe Jew, obviously had to wait until the first day of playoff games were in the books before I would post my playoff predictions that no one cares about. Pens will win every series ever. Ever. To the Windows...1st Round2nd RoundConf. FinalsWashington in 5Buffalo in 7Washington in 6Boston in 7Boston in 6Boston in 7Pittsburgh in 6And the Wall...1st Round2nd RoundConf. FinalsVancouver in 5Anaheim in 7Vancouver in 7Vancouver in 7Detroit in 6Detroit in 7San Jose in 6Much like Vance, Vancouver is my pick to win it all...unless of course that shitty shitty PK of theirs lets them down. And Boston fans will be able to relish in the fact that at least their hockey team doesn't suck...or whiff on balls. BOOM. Montreal sucks.

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Shenanigans Ahoy in Buffalo

The Flyers aren't used to being pushed around; they're usually the ones being the big, bad bullies. They're the ones usually shrugging off the incessant whines of the opposition, and their fans, about getting away with murder on the ice. The Sabres aren't usually the team heading into the corners with reckless abandon; clearing Ryan Miller's crease with welt producing cross checks; they're supposed to keep their play to the perimeter, use their team speed to make pylons out of opposition bluelines. They're the ones who find themselves speaking out on the stick infractions that have crept back into the "New NHL"; they're the ones strewn about the ice after being railroaded by the bigger, stronger rosters. But here we are, heading into a best of 3 starting Friday, and that's the exact opposite situation we find ourselves in. That's playoff hockey. What exactly led us to this point? As it stands through 4 games the Sabres have (in the most subjective of stats) 117 hits to the Flyers 105. But it's not just Pat Kaleta who's getting under the Flyers skin, it's the sudden thick skin that developed around the Sabres, eliciting reactions like the elbow to the chin of Kaleta by Mike Richard's that launched Flyer Phans into a frenzy and sent the Captain to the box for a questionable 5 minutes. Of course the hockey Gods spoke with the 5 minutes PP being one of the worst ever run on this planet. Richard's explanation of his actions? "I saw him take a couple of hard strides at me. I had to protect myself. They're not going to call anything, so I had to protect myself." Those words are telling. The Flyers seem to feel, as punctuated by their frustrated leader, that the Refs have it in for them (remember now; 28 minors called against Buffalo so far, 24 against Philadelphia, just so you know, that it ain't true) and they'll be taking care of things on their own. Like say, for example, the 2 minute "slashing" call levied to noted pugilist Kimmo Timonen for his upsy-daisy on Nathan Gerbe at 00:00 of the 3rd period. Video, naturally. Now of course that's not to say the Sabres are innocent of the goonish behavior that is warranting such vigilante on-ice justice. Of course it's almost all coming from your friend and mine, Patrick Kaleta. And Mike Weber and Tyler Myers were doing the kind of crease clearing that we're predisposed to seeing Chris Pronger dish out. Again; not something the Flyers are used to; not at all. Like here. And here. Of course, who could forget the move that has Flyers' fans bouncing off the walls (while the fans of 29 other franchises laughed hysterically. Go ahead, ask, they did), Kaleta conveniently, inconspicuously, coyly, opens the door for his teammates to enter the bench, except it seems that Nik Zherdev was in the midst of a scrum on it. Add it all up and what do you get? One of the best damn Friday nights of your life. And a pretty entertaining morning on Twitter.

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Sweet Mother of God

Brought to the masses by @MLSE. The most egregious thing I've ever seen. Zung Nguyen (Rogue Squadron) Player Profile And before they take it down...an image. In Brendan Shanahan's world this is a 2 game suspension. My reaction?

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Setting Them Up To Fail

Oh hi, didn't see you there. Bet you didn't expect this; me? Writing? Crap? Guess you did expect that last one. Today I was setting upon a chair, as I am wont to do while at work, and was thinking about how freakin' fantastic last year's rookie crop really was. 3 guys topped 30 goals, 4 more topped 20, 10 in all topped 40 points, 29 had over 20. Compare that with last years rookies, no 30 goal scorers, 4 had 20, only 5 over 40 points, 21 over 20. Good stuff right? Right. But then, being the eternal pessimist I am, also known as a Buffalo Sabres fan, I started thinking about who exactly set themself up to fail. Then I started thinking about this and couldn't quit laughing. Ok, back on track. Let's take a look at the top 15 rookie point getters from last season; just look at the graph (that will probably be terribly formatted). Player Team Pos GP G A P 1 Jeff Skinner CAR C 82 31 32 63 2 Logan Couture SJS C 79 32 24 56 3 Michael Grabner NYI R 76 34 18 52 4 Tyler Ennis BUF L 82 20 29 49 5 Derek Stepan NYR C 82 21 24 45 6 Jordan Eberle EDM R 69 18 25 43 7 Kevin Shattenkirk COL, STL D 72 9 34 43 8 Taylor Hall EDM L 65 22 20 42 9 Brad Marchand BOS C 77 21 20 41 10 Cam Fowler ANA D 76 10 30 40 11 P.K. Subban MTL D 77 14 24 38 12 Bryan Bickell CHI L 78 17 20 37 13 John Carlson WSH D 82 7 30 37 14 Magnus Paajarvi EDM L 80 15 19 34 15 Jamie McBain CAR D 76 7 23 30 Oh it's so bulgy, it's like a moose. Anyways; top 15 in point scoring among rookies there. Now let's look back to the rookie crop from 2009-2010 where Tyler Myers won the Calder. Here we've got the 2009-2010 rookie stats juxtaposed against the 2010-2011 follow up campaign. LEGEND: If the box is yellow the number is greater than the rookie season, if red, then it's less, if blue, then it's identical. Got it? Good. You can see a lot of the top tier forward prospects, those whose ice time increased or maintained top line status, saw their numbers continue to grow with their development. Duchene, Tavares, Benn, Anisimov, Bozak, and Kane all saw their numbers increase with the jump to greater ice time with greater linemates. Where is there a slump? Outside of Erik Karlsson, the defensemen languished with their increased role and ice time. Hell, Del Zotto found himself in Connecticut part of the season. Without being protected by some vets, and in Myers and Del Zottos cases, sometimes flat out exposed, really saw a shift in their production. More in depth? OK. Tyler Myers was slated on the 1B pair with Henrik Tallinder during his rookie season, not necessarily playing night in and night out against the oppositions greatest talent. In fact, Myers' "Quality of Teammates" fell from .182 to .078, while his Quality of Competition stats still stayed above 0 (one of only 2 Sabres defensemen in 2011 with such numbers). In addition to that, he regularly got PP time, which was diminished when the Sabres brought in Jordan Leopold as a free agent. So, look at that, increased responsibility, with weaker teammates, and less PP time, means less results. Let's take it one more year back. So here again we see a pretty similar set of circumstances where folks fell back to earth from their rookie year to their sophomore campaign. Let's specifically just take a look at what happened to Patrik Berglund from 2009 to 2010. Remember in 2008 - 2009 the St. Louis Blues traded for Alex Steen (for some reason) about a quarter of the way through Berglund's rookie season, creating a crowded dot for the centers in St. Louis, not to mention creating a competition between Berglund and fellow rookie TJ Oshie while Paul Kariya was out with concussion issues. Oshie won that battle; moving up in 2009 - 2010 to a line with David Backes and Paul Kariya (almost 40% of the time) while Berglund remained on a lower line with Andy McDonald and David Perron. Also fun to note; Berglund played about 15-20% of his rookie season alongside Brad Boyes who's production dropped from 72 points to 42 during this same time frame. So I think you get the picture here. There's a couple of reasons why rookies who seemed so promising are really actually being set up to fail (easy to see in hindsight right?). 1. Decreased ice time due to circumstances uncontrollable (Free agent signings, return from injury) 2. Quality of Competition increases 3. Quality of Teammate decreases 4. Coach's Call (Well that makes it sound really freakin' simple) So when you take a look back at the top rookies of 2010-2011, who's poised for a step backwards? I've got 3 in mind right now. Michael Grabner, Derek Stepan, and PK Subban. Why? Boom. 1. Michael Grabner - Grabner had a fantastic run, playing in all situations for the Isles. So where's the issue? A full season of Nino Niederreiter and Kyle Okposo pushing him. Even at only 15 minutes of ice time per night, with the Isles back healthy, Grabner might not get those same opportunities as he did last season after being pulled off waivers. Not to mention the fact that he doesn't play with Tavares. 2. Derek Stepan - The Rangers Center situation suddenly got very crowded after July 1. With Brad Richards and Brandon Dubinsky ahead of Stepan on the depth chart, and comparable statistics to Boyle and Anisimov, there won't be nearly as much ice time to go around, and it won't be with Gaborik or Callahan. 3. PK Subban - I'm far more sure of the above than this selection, but I still think Subban will take a step back. With Hamrlik and Wisniewski heading out of Montreal, Subban's ice time is certainly going to rise from 4th amongst the D corps. But, with that, Subban will see his quality of competition rise quite a bit against other teams top lines, so we could definitely see a Tyler Myers effect on his numbers. Throw in the return of a healthy Andrei Markov, and what that means for Subban's powerplay time, and you've got yourself a recipe for a step back. Think about it.

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BanginPanger on Flyers Corner

Last night had to go ahead and drop some knowledge on those Flyers homers at Flyers Corner and my personal stalkers FlyersGoalScoredBy. Some pretty good discussion on some of the major issues surrounding the Sabres - Flyers series such as, but not limited to: Chris Pronger's health and how he changes the dynamic of that roster, Ryan Miller's late season injury and confidence in Jhonas Enroth, The Pegula Factor, The Ennis n' Gerbe factor, The Briere - Giroux - Leino line scaring the shit outta me, and Doing blow off Sean Avery's backstraps. Listen to internet radio with FlyersCorner on Blog Talk Radio You can follow the hosts of Flyers Corner on Twitter at @SethDH and @Mtrible. Yeah; some predictions coming later this morning; gotta get my photoshop on first.

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FrankenJersey Foul: Nashville Statue of Liberties

The title about says it all. Spotted, via GameCenter, during last night's Sabres - Predators matinee at HSBC arena in Buffalo, a FrankenJersey featuring the away sweater of the Nashville Predators with the New York Rangers Lady Liberty crest. Well, I assumed it was a girl based on that tacky St. Patrick's Day trinket; but at this point, I think it might be a "Pat." Somethin' about those fans down south, not sure what it is.

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Breaking Down the East; One Last Time

I've about worn this topic down to the ground; but one last mega-stats post before we hit the final 10 game stretch seems appropriate. Let's break this bitch down. First off; I just pasted images of my Excel files in here, too much of a pain to do through tables, so you get pictures, get over it. There's two different sections; on the left is the remaining schedule with opponents current records then their combined winning percentage. On the right is the current season series between each team and their opponents, then the goals scored for and against during those season series. The two final stats then are the franchise's winning percentage against only their remaining opponents, then the goal differential of them as well. 7th Place: New York Rangers Rangers have, by far, the easiest schedule heading through the stretch, with their opponents combined record 34 games under .500. I use true .500; get over it. Goal differential is bloated due to the thrashing they gave the Islanders this year, en route to a 4-1-0 record. They scored 4, 6, 2, 7, and 6 in their 5 games against the Isles. The Rangers are the only team with a record over .500 during the season series' against their remaining opponents. Only the Leafs are at least .500. Only 2 of the Rangers 16 wins came in OT against remaining opponents; they did not lose any games in extra time. Only 3 of 8 remaining opponents are in division. 8th Place: Buffalo Sabres The Sabres have the 3rd easiest remaining schedule, with remaining opponents a mere 3 games over .500; yet against that schedule they have the 2nd worst record during their season series. Of 10 remaining opponents; the Sabres only outscored the opposition in 3 of those season series, with the Columbus "series" being a sole game. 6 of the Sabres 14 wins against remaining opponents during their season series' came in OT/SO. They lost 3 as well. Only 2 of 10 remaining opponents are in division. 9th Place: Carolina Hurricanes The Canes remaining opponents are a combined 4 games over true .500. The Canes dominated the Isles and Thrashers; but were dominated by the Caps and Canadiens. All 3 matchups between the Sabres and Canes were 1 goal games, 1 decided in OT. 4 of 5 games against Atlanta went into extra time; the Canes won 2 in SO, 1 in OT, and lost another in OT. Overall they won 5 in extra time; lost 3. 50% of remaining games are in division; 3 with Tampa Bay alone. 10th Place: Toronto Maple Leafs The Maple Leafs combined opponents are a total of 3 games under .500. Of the 13 games they won against their remaining schedule; only 2 were in extra time. Leafs are only 1 of 3 teams (Rangers, Canes the others) that had a positive goal differential against their remaining opponents during their season series. 4 of 9 contests remaining are Northeast Division contests, whereas just 2 of the other 5 are in the rest of the Eastern Conference. 11th Place: New Jersey Devils Devils remaining opponents are combined 35 games over .500. In their season series, 7 of the Devils 13 wins, that 54% there, were decided in OT/SO. A -21 goal differential during their season series' is the worst, as is only outscoring 1 opponent, yet they are "winning" 2 different series. The Devils have the toughest remaining schedule; with only Sabres, Isles, and Leafs below true .500. 5 of 10 against Atlantic, the other 5 against Northeast Division. 12th Place: Atlanta Thrashers The Thrashers have the 2nd most difficult schedule remaining, but matchups with the 27th & 28th teams offset games with the Flyers and Canucks. 6 of the Thrasher's 13 wins in the season series' came in OT/SO, almost 40% of their games against their remaining schedule went to extra time. Just 1 division game remains for Atlanta. That's as much data mining as you'll get outta me today. Now armed with knowledge, dominate arguments with Devils' fans who know they'll sneak in the 8th spot.

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2011 Playoff Prognostication

Because 1 more set of predictions isn't going to kill anybody. After some serious deliberations (not really) and painstaking research (again, not really); here's the official (read: mine, not Denson's) BanginPanger playoff predictions; complete with NHL 94 brackets. Starting with the East... 1st Round2nd RoundConf. Finals Washington in 6 Buffalo in 6Washington in 7 Boston in 7 Boston in 5Boston in 6 Pittsburgh in 7 No, Phoenix did not win the SJS/LAK series; it's re-seeding...dicks 1st Round2nd RoundConf. Finals Vancouver in 7 San Jose in 5Vancouver in 6 Vancouver in 6 Phoenix in 6Anaheim in 6 Anaheim in 7 And in your 2011 Stanley Cup final; the Vancouver Canucks get their 1st Stanley Cup with a 6 game victory over the Bruins of Boston. Flame away homers.

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New: Fathead NHL Legends

And the first one available; naturally; is a Toronto Maple Leaf. Now here's a question; if you wanted a "NHL Legend" hanging in your man cave; who'd it be? Damn well wouldn't be Doug Gilmour. I would make Bobby Orr my mantle piece. Somehow. I'd carve a log or something to make it happen.

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Who's Going to Parlay a Big Playoff to a Big Payday?

I find myself starting these types of posts without any clear indication where I'm going with it; just a question I want to know the answer to. So I figure; if in all my glory I'm curious enough to sit down and start blathering away about it, then there's got to be someone else out there who's wondering the same thing. So after watching last night's throwdown, I started wondering, what guys are going to paid for a relatively decent playoff showing? I guess that means RFAs who blossomed, mid-season acquisitions with a career resurgence, or maybe the Druce-types who explode come playoff time. We'll find out. So, boom; let's go. Sean Bergenheim, LW, Tampa Bay Lightning How fortuitous of Mr. Bergenheim, him of 14 regular season goals and 29 regular season points, to suddenly turn into Steven Stamkos. With 8 postseason goals (currently leading the playoffs), you can bet that the 27 year old Bergenheim is going to get a hefty raise, and term, from the $700,000 1 year deal he signed last Summer. Joel Ward, RW, Nashville Predators Contract years make guys do crazy awesome things. Joel Ward was no exception during the Predators playoff run. Coming up on the final moments of his 2 year, $3 million (total) contract, Ward went 10 goals, 29 points during the regular season. Playoffs? He played over a PPG pace, leading the Preds in goals, assists, plus/minus, and power play goals; scoring 13 points in 12 games (7 goals, 6 assists). The 30 year old had one more chance to get paid, he did what he needed to do. Now if only he would've had a little help. Ville Leino, LW, Philadelphia Flyers It's hard to believe that Leino was only making $800,000 this year as is; add in a solid, not spectacular playoff run (how the hell was Leino barely averaging more ice time than Scott Hartnell?) and he's bound to get a raise, like a 200% raise. Marc-Andre Gragnani, D, Buffalo Sabres If there was one guy this playoff season that you were like "Who the shit is that guy?" It was probably Marc-Andre Gragnani, who ran with his chance after some inauspicious play from Sabres blueliners. Making a mere $500,000 he led the Sabres in playoff points and assists, coming in with 7 in 7. Looks like he'll be in the blue and gold permanently next season, with a bigger paycheck. Eric Brewer, D, Tampa Bay Lightning Eric Brewer's time in St. Louis was obviously coming to an end. Riddled with injuries and "overpaid", not to mention the increased roles for Pietrangelo and Shattenkirk towards the end of the year, Brewer was jettisoned off to Tampa without hesitation. With 6 points in 13 playoff games, and a towering presence in front of Dwayne Roloson, there's a chance Brewer gets one more shot at some cash, definitely not $4.25 million again, but enough to feed his family (if he had like 800 kids). Ray Emery, G, Anaheim Ducks Although he couldn't save the Ducks from the surprising Predator's run, he did get the Ducks to wear they were after some seriously surprising play. He won't really be needed in Anaheim once Lucille Austero, rather, Jonas Hiller, returns from vertigo, but the late season run he pulled together will be enough to get him signed to something greater than a $500 K contract. Scott Hannan, D, Washington Capitals A lot went wrong in the series against Tampa Bay, but it can't really fall on the shoulders of the 32 year old Hannan. Coming in with the 2nd most TOI of any Capital in the playoffs, as well as providing that needed physical edge on the blueline, Hannan proved his worth to his new mates. Unfortunately, Hannan won't be making $4.5 million next season, but if he would've stayed in Colorado, he'd be making a hell of a lot less next year than he's set to now. I guarantee it. "How many times do I have to tell you? Backcheck...douche" Jason Arnott, C, Washington Capitals Take Jason Arnott out of the uber-disciplined Lemaire regime and throw him into a disheveled, lackadaisical mess like the midseason Washington Capitals and what do you get? Outside of a crying Alexander Semin we saw a Capital turnaround into the Eastern Conference champions. While Arnott proved he still had plenty in the tank, and plenty of clout in the locker room, he'll definitely be signing, somewhere, next year, with a bigger paycheck than if he would've stayed with the Devils. Yeah; he'll take a cut from the $4.5 million he made last year, but it'll be worth it. So what do you think? Good mix here I'd say. We've got the role players who blossomed under the pressure, vagabonds who made good, some young'ns who're gonna get bigger raises, and the wily vets who're gonna get a little more out of that last contract than they would have otherwise. Hell maybe I'm writing this too early and a guy like Tanner Glass or Kent Huskins is going to go buck wild and dominate for 8 straight games. Doubt it, but you never know. We'll revisit this. Maybe. Next year. Maybe July 1st.

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Breaking Down 7 - 9 in the East

Last night's Rangers - Sabres tilt was pivotal in terms of closing the gap between the 7th and 9 place squads in the East (it's no Western Conference, but I don't give a rats ass about the West so you can do your own work). Hell, SportsClubStats now has all 3 clubs, Rangers, Canes, and Sabres with over 50% chance on making the playoffs (not sure how that works). I may not be able to predict the future; but we can definitely take a look at the schedule to see how it could all play out. First off; the first of many charts clocking an interesting piece of data; a real-time look at the each of the Rangers, Canes, and Sabres remaining opponents win percentage; calculated as Wins/(Wins+Losses+Overtime Losses). Here's how it sits now. The Rangers' (with 17 games remaining on their schedule) opponents have a win percentage of 48.92%, the combined record at 525-427-121. The Hurricanes' (with 18 games remaining) opponents have a current win percentage of 48.76%, the combined record being 553-435-146. The Sabres' (with 20 games remaining) opponents have a win percentage of 49.96%. Their opponent's combined record is 632-482-151. I'm going to keep a running tab on this (Excel rules) and move forward posting how it changes daily. There should interesting to see how it changes with hot teams (Islanders, Sharks, Bruins) leaving the data, and how easily statistics can change from day to day. Here's some other factoids that might just interest you in the race for the 7th and 8th seeds in the East.The Hurricanes and Rangers both have 6 games against seeds 1-6 in the East (in 18 and 17 games, respectively) while the Sabres have 7 (in 20 remaining games). Each team has 3 games left against the Western Conference. 1. The Rangers have the Wild, Ducks, and Sharks.2. The Canes get the Blackhawks, Blue Jackets, and Red Wings.3. The Sabres have the Wild, Predators, and Blue JacketsThe Rangers and Sabres have 1 more contest remaining, the Rangers and Canes do not play again, while the Sabres and Canes play 3 more times this year. The Rangers have 5 games remaining against division leaders: 2 with Philadelphia, 2 with Boston, and 1 with San Jose. The Canes have 4 games remaining against division leaders: 3 with Tampa Bay and 1 with Detroit. The Sabres also have 4 games remaining against division leaders: 2 with Philadelphia, 1 with Tampa Bay, and 1 with Boston. The Rangers record against their remaining opponents this year is 21-25-1; including going 0-4 against Philadelphia, whom they play twice. The Hurricanes record against their remaining opponents is 20-16-5; including going 0-3-1 against the Caps (2 left) and 1-1-1 against Tampa (3 left), 4-0 against Atlanta (2 left), and 0-1 against Buffalo (3 left). The Sabres record against their remaining opponents is 26-22-3; including 0-2 vs Philly (2 left), 3-1 vs TOR (2 left), and 1-0 vs CAR (3 left) I can't imagine there's anything left I could possibly could cover here. Now with all this knowledge; who you got making it?

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Do the Caps Have What it Takes to Win it All?

Uh oh...what's this? Who is this man? Has Vance's blog been hacked? Well, sort of. He made the mistake of starting this blog with me 2+ years ago and I have been MIA. But, alas, I have returned to post about, of all things, the Washington Capitals. As a Pens fanboy, it pains me to say that I just have this gut feeling that the Capitals actually have what it takes to win the Stanley Cup this year. They just seem to have the characteristics I find to be the most valuable come playoff time. No statistics here (ok maybe a couple)...these are just the traits I think a team must have in order to be successful for the playoffs: 1. Leadership - Guys like Jason Arnott, Matt Hendricks, Mike Knuble, and Brooks Laich exemplify the leadership this team has been missing during their previous playoff failures. OV and Backstrom are great players, and even Semin has his moments, but Boudreau and company brought Arnott and Hendricks in to fill a void that the Caps have been missing for so long (yes I know a 2nd line center was a need). Arnott and Hendricks might not always show up on the score sheet, but what they'll provide this team when facing adversity during the playoffs will be far more valuable. I know it's cliche, but who can argue against it? Leadership is a must for a team to be considered of Championship caliber. 2. Facing and Overcoming Adversity - Every team experiences adversity during the long regular season; but not every team survives it (NJ is trying), and few come out of it a better team. But the ones that do are almost always among the most dangerous in the playoffs. Pittsburgh and Chicago both went through it prior to their Stanley Cup championships; Washington went through it this year, with millions of viewers watching it unfold on television. And as much as 24/7 made Boudreau look like an incompetent ass, you have to credit him and his coaching staff for circling the wagons and having this team steamrolling right into the playoffs and even threatening for another Conference title. Touche Bruce. Touche. 3. Defense - OV and his Caps are doing more with less. Less offense yet a more complete team. While the record may not be as sexy as last season, I think most Caps fans would tell you they feel the most confident they have ever felt with this current team heading into the playoffs. And who can blame them? Their penalty kill ranks 4th ( 85.5) and GAA is 4th (2.38). Their offensive stats are down, yes...but so what? How many games in the playoffs are high scoring? Not many. You win Cups based on defense first. You win cups by winning 1 goal games and defending leads. This Caps team can do that. Past ones could not. And any team with the likes of Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Semin shouldn't be worried about offense. They'll get theirs. 4. Grit/Toughness - See one...Matt Hendricks. Look, this team just sucks to play against. It isn't all about a race to 10 goals anymore. You pay a price now for having the puck...and sometimes even when you don't (I had to). Bottom line is this: The Caps are a nasty, mean bunch. They've learned that it's too difficult to try and just switch gears from happy-go-lucky highscoring touts in the regular season to down-in-the-trenches, physical games come playoffs. So they changed their regular season mentality around January, and you can rest assured that they'll be a better team for it come playoff time. 5. Capable Goaltending - One thing we've learned in recent seasons is that you don't have to have a Hall of Fame goaltender between the pipes to win a Cup ( I still refuse to believe Chris Osgood is a Hall of Famer). The Caps are young in net, yes, but Neuvirth and Varlamov should be good enough to make the saves this team needs to win close games. Not having the experience is no longer an acceptable excuse; Varlamov has Game 7 experience. If they can minimize their gaffes, and just make the saves they are expected to make, I like their chances. The Washington Capitals and their fans have been waiting many many years for Lord Stanley to find a home in the Nation's capital. And while I'll be rooting for another early round exit for these guys, I would not all be surprised to see Bruce and OV eating Haagen Das out of Stanley's Cup this summer. They just seem to have the "it" factor that's been missing for so long.

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Is the NHL getting screwed?

Check out the NBA's newest partner; Marvel Comics. In what might be more than just a coincidence; the NBA is getting licensed Marvel gear. Apparently their partnership was initially cooked up in early Summer 2010 in a co-branding effort; working towards grabbing a lifelong fan in the form of a 7 year old boy after seeing Iron Man in Heat colors. So here's the million dollar question; is re-branding heroes to fit a city a better than an original character being created for each franchise? Now remember; Stan Lee is no longer involved with Marvel Comics; so is the company he creating undercutting him and the NHL? Cause damn son, that's cutthroat.

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And the Most Dangerous Team in the East is...

Well since every other blogger is examining the current playoff picture, why should we be any different?Here's a look at the East. I refuse to post the West because to be honest, there are just too many "what if" scenarios over there. Shit be crazy.From TSN:Your usual culprits at the top of the standings. But we as hockey fans know that we have the best post season tournament in sports. And one of the main reasons is because it is unpredictable. Any team can win Cup. It's not a 1 vs 16 seed in the first round. It's 1 vs 8. Best of 7. And the drop off between the teams is usually not too great. See one Capitals, Washington circa 2010 vs the Montreal Canadians.Every year though, there is that one team in each Conference that you just pray your team won't have to face. Up until this weekend, everyone in the East feared the Devils. And for good reason, they went on an unbelievable run to push for the playoffs, but in the end, the hole proved to be too deep.The East playoff picture is pretty much set, and when I look at it, there is one team that I'd want nothing to do with, especially in the first round, and it's all because of this man:He's just so dashing!In all honesty though, the New York Rangers had, and probably glad they did, been lost in the shuffle due to New Jersey's ridiculous streak. But now that the Devils know they'll be hitting the links in April, the Rangers emerge from the fog as one of the NHL's hottest teams.The Rangers are 8-1-1 in their last 10. I know they've been up and down all season, but the scary part is that Lundqvist has been carrying the team for most of the 2nd half of the season, and he just now seems to be hitting his stride. He recorded 3 of his NHL leading 11 shutouts in the Month of March. He's 4th in Save % (.924) and 5th in GAA (2.24). For a team plagued with inconsistent play all season, now is as good a time as ever to really mesh as a team. I'm too lazy to look past the last 2 seasons, but think about the Flyers and Penguins and their Cup runs. The Penguins had to go on crazy run to just make the playoffs and ended up winning the Cup. The Flyers needed a shootout victory over the Rangers last year to even make the playoffs, and they rode that momentum all the way to the Cup finals. It's all about which team is playing the best...and what team is housing the hottest goaltender when the playoffs start.Let's assume the East stays the way it is right now, which I think it will. We'll be left with:(1)Flyers vs (8)Sabres(2)Caps vs (7)Rangers(3)Bruins vs (6)Habs(4)Pens vs (5)LightningBoy, for a Capitals team that has been struggling to find the back of the net all season, a first round match up against the Rangers would be mighty tough. Not saying...just saying.What's the point of this article? I don't know. Basically I'm just saying that the Rangers scare the shit out of me as a potential first round opponent, and I'd want nothing to do with them based on their goaltending and recent play as a team.Honorable Mention: Gotta represent Vance's Sabres here too. I think we all know that Ryan Miller can win a series on his own just based on his Olympic resume. And that little midget Gerbe is pretty shifty. Connolly sucks.

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The Goon Quotient: Results You'd Expect

TThis morning I've been fooling around with some stats; specifically with penalties. NHL.com essentially breaks down penalty data for us; but I wanted to measure the goons; those teams with the most grit. Half of me wanted to see if the stereotypes rang true ("Habitants?! More like Pussitants! AMIRITE!", "BURY GILLIES!"), the other to see if there was any sort of correlation between success and perceived "grit". So, I made up the MIN-MAJ Ratio; the Goon Quotient; the BizNasty Postulate; whatever the hell you want to call it. Essentially; all it takes is the total number of minor penalties for any given team; then divides that by the combined number of Majors, Misconducts, and Match penalties. You've got 2 spectrums, the BizNasty Postulate and the exact opposite; the Pinko Frenchie Don Cherry Exponent. For whole teams; both stats work well, you can really see the attitudes and behaviors of each roster, mostly because of the larger scale of the data. On the personnel side, only the BizNasty Postulate is worth looking at. And we will, oh we will. Off to the data. Team Major/Minor Ratio The data speaks for itself. Tell me when you think of "soft" teams, you don't immediately think Detroit, Nashville, Florida, Buffalo, etc. Go right down the line. Now count the goons on each team. Wings? Nope. Predators? Tootoo. Phoenix? BizNasty. Tampa? Nope. Florida? Hordichuk. Buffalo? McCormick. I'll stop. Of teams in the bottom 10 (top 10?) of the Goon Quotient; only Phoenix (3rd. BizNasty 13), Buffalo (6th. McCormick 18), Carolina (8th. Troy Bodie 10), Minnesota (9th. Brad Staubitz 17) and Chicago (10th. John Scott 10) have roster players with more than 10 combined Majors, Misconducts, and Match penalties. That's 10 teams, 5 players, 68 penalties assessed. Now, of teams in the top 10 in this here Goon Quotient; 22 players have over 10 combined Majors, Misconducts, and Match penalties. That contrast is stark. Boston (1st. Shawn Thornton 16. Adam McQuaid 13. Greg Campbell 11), the Islanders (2nd. Zenon Konopka 31. Matt Martin 16. Trevor Gillies 15), St. Louis (3rd. BJ Crombeen 17, Cam Janssen 17, Brad Winchester 10), Pittsburgh (4th. Derek Engelland 15, Mike Rupp 13, Eric Godard 10) lead with 3 guys with at least 10. Anaheim's then got Parros, the Rangers bring Avery and Prust into it, Edmonton has Theo Peckham and Zack Stortini, Dallas brings Steve Ott and Krys Barch to the bloodbath, and finally the Kings have Kyle Clifford and Kevin Westgarth. So that's 10 teams, 22 players, 342 penalties. A stark difference? You betcha. So what does this stat really tell us? Boston is a disciplined team, taking few minors, but willing to stand up for itself if the need arises? Pittsburgh is undisciplined and goonish? Buffalo acts a fool but forces poor Cody McCormick to answer for it? So is there any correlation between goons and success? Being Charmin soft and making the playoffs? Well; of the top 10 in goon quotient (so the gooniest, I'm not convinced one way or the other is better) 5 teams are currently in playoff spots, in the bottom 10, 7 teams are holding playoff positions, while 4 middling teams do as well. Interesting eh? Well what about just the majors themselves; screw the Quotient. Well; the 15 teams on the softer side; well 9 of them are in playoff positioning. The 15 on the goon side? 7 in playoff positioning, naturally. Separate it further. The Soft 10; 7 playoff teams, the middling 10; 5 playoff teams, the Goon 10; 4 playoff teams. Ok; so how does that change when you factor in all penalties; minors plus majors, misconducts and match penalties? Well; it does go about a minor change. The 10 least penalized teams have 5 playoff teams, the middle 10 have 7, while the most heavily penalized 10 rosters have 4 teams in playoff positioning. Is Damien Cox right? Are goons irrelevant, detrimental even, in today's NHL? Seems to be moving that way. Someone do a historical analysis. BizNasty Postulate BizNasty FTW! Let's be honest here; this is a who's who list of goons in the league; only towards the bottom of this 30 most majors in the league list do you start to see some players who can contribute in other areas as well. The increase in minors directly coincides with increased ice time or in Steve Ott's case; how big of a douche he's being on the ice at any given time. So congratulations Paul Bissonette; you have exactly 0.230769 minor penalties for every Major. Fourth line for life. Pinko Commie Don Cherry Charmin Soft Theorem I don't particularly care for the reverse goon quotient if only for the fact that you can't divide by zero. But what exactly does Victor Hedman having 31 minors and no majors tell us? That he needs to move his feet more? Whatever. You know what is interesting about this list, which is the top 30 players in assessed minors? Look at the trend down the line...soft, soft, soft, soft, agitator, agitator, douchebag, terrible reputation players, Captain Elbows Jr., Worst person on the planet, Matt Cooke, then gets into some of the goons. Key to this list? Notice all those guys who're assessed tons of minors...P.K. Subban, Ruutu, Cooke, Neil...but don't answer the bell. Tsk, tsk fellas.

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Looking at the Eastern Race. Again.

I'm going to throw you Leaf and Devil fans a bone here; an updated "Combined Remaining Opponents Win Percentage" graphic with Toronto, New Jersey and Atlanta included. They join the Rangers, Sabres, and Hurricanes on it. I'll include the numbers to make it a little easier to read. --3/2/20113/3/20113/4/20113/7/2011 Rangers48.9282%49.0269%48.8780%48.7155% Canes48.7654%48.7741%48.6289%48.4271% Sabres49.9605%49.9607%50.2451%49.1055% Maple Leafs------49.8092% Thrashers------51.5670% Devils------48.1680% So, if you'd recall, that's calculated by taking their remaining opponents combined total wins, divided by that same number plus total losses and Overtime losses, aka true 500. I noted this on Twitter; but if you don't follow (how come not?) take note of this. The Devils do currently have the weakest remaining schedule overall...at this point. Over their next 5 contests, their opponents combined win percentage is a mere 37.38%, then over their final 12 games, that number will jump to 52.66% (as it stands now). But man; poor Thrashers; with 3 contests remaining against Philadelphia (and a matchup with the Canucks); you can see why their number is so much higher than the rest.

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BanginPanger Does A Podcast

So last night the guys over a HockeeNight invited me on to talk a little about everything including but not limited to banana hammocks and Matt Cooke, to my hatred of Nicholas Cage and Brendan Fraser and Corner Bakery. Enjoy or not. I think I should start my own. That would be fun.

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